Super Bowl 2023 predictions, preview: The case for the Eagles and Chiefs

After a thrilling NFL season that often felt chaotic and unpredictable, it’s refreshing to see the two best teams in the league squaring off in next week’s Super Bowl matchup between the Eagles and Chiefs. Yet one clearly stands out as the better pick to win it all.

Here’s an early preview of this year’s title matchup and which side we’re betting on in the big game:

Super Bowl 2023 preview

The case for the Chiefs

After watching Patrick Mahomes add another remarkable chapter to his likely Hall of Fame résumé, do you really want to bet against him right now? The presumptive MVP hobbled all over the field at Arrowhead Stadium and somehow managed to throw for 326 yards and two touchdowns — highlighted by one of the most ridiculous throws you’ll see in the third quarter and a gutsy run on the game’s final drive to win it.

In many ways, that’s what the championship experience looks like. Mahomes is among the core group of players and coaches who are headed to their third Super Bowl in four seasons — twice before facing teams built very similarly to the Eagles. Kansas City split those two matchups but has a certain resilience this year that will be tough to suppress.

The case for the Eagles

How does anyone stop this run game? During the regular season, the Eagles led the league in rushing DVOA behind the best offensive line in football. Then they embarrassed the Giants’ run defense in the divisional round and somehow bullied the 49ers — who owned one of the best defenses in years — on both sides of the ball in a shocking blowout win.

Jalen Hurts isn’t fully healthy, but it hasn’t mattered with how unstoppable this run game is and how physically dominant his receivers are when called upon. That’s to say nothing of this ferocious Philly defense, which boasts a lethal combination of the best pass rush and secondary in football. How’s that for a championship combo?

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Super Bowl 2023 prediction

Eagles -2

There’s a reason sharp money came pouring in on the Eagles just minutes after this game opened around even at a majority of sportsbooks: these teams aren’t equal, and they won’t look like it next Sunday.

Philadelphia owns the advantages in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Its top-ranked pass defense is well equipped to handle the Chiefs’ top-ranked passing offense, which is still working at a deficit with Mahomes’ high-ankle sprain limiting his mobility. That wasn’t as big of an issue against the Bengals, but the Eagles’ pass rush will surely force Mahomes into uncomfortable spots on an ankle that clearly ailed him as the AFC Championship wore on.

That wasn’t the only injury of note: the Chiefs also lost three of their top receivers in that win, and their status will be a significant factor in the lead-up to this year’s Super Bowl. Travis Kelce is a game-wrecker in his own right. Still, the Bengals essentially blanketed him in the AFC title game and left their cornerbacks on an island to handle Kansas City’s tertiary receivers. 

Mahomes made them pay for doing so, but the Eagles have the best cornerback duo in the league and are far better positioned to make that kind of strategy work against this dangerous Chiefs offense. And good luck running against Philly, which has shored up its rush defense over the back half of the season with a healthy rotation of big bodies inside.

It feels as if just about every schematic matchup in this game favors the Eagles, so it’s no surprise the betting market does, too. Mahomes is the ultimate wild card, even when he’s less than 100%, but Hurts was the MVP favorite before his own injury and is flanked by one of the most impressive rosters we’ve seen in years. Don’t overthink this one.