New Hampshire battleground poll shows key Senate showdown is down to the margin of error

DURHAM, N.H. – With two days to go until Election Day, a new public opinion survey in battleground New Hampshire indicates a margin-of-error race between former governor and first-term Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan and her Republican challenger former Army Gen. Don Bolduc.

The poll, from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, is the latest to indicate that Hassan’s one-time upper-single digit lead over Bolduc has disappeared in a race that’s among a handful across the country that will likely determine if the GOP wins back the Senate majority in Tuesday’s midterm elections.

Hassan stands at 50% among likely voters question in the poll, which was released on Sunday evening, with Bolduc at 48% and Libertarian Party candidate Jeremy Kauffman at 1% and 1% backing someone else or undecided. Hassan’s two-point edge over Bolduc is within the survey’s sampling error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points. Hassan held an eight-point lead over Bolduc in UNH’s previous poll, which was conducted in September.

Bolduc, who’s making his second straight bid for the Senate, in mid-September won the GOP nomination in a crowded and combustible primary showdown, narrowly edging more mainstream conservative state Senate President Chuck Morse. 

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According to the new survey, which was conducted online Nov. 2-6, Republicans have coalesced around Bolduc, with 94% saying they’ve vote for the GOP nominee, up from 83% in the September poll. Hassan enjoyed the backing of 99% of Democrats, with Independents divided – 47% support Hassan, 45% back Bolduc, and 5% support Kauffman.

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In New Hampshire’s First Congressional District, which for a generation has been one of the nation’s premiere swing House districts, the poll indicates two-term Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas at 50% and Republican challenger Karoline Leavitt. In the state’s Second Congressional District, five-term Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster tops Republican nominee Bob Burns 53%-45%.

Republican Gov. Chris Sununu, who’s running for a fourth two-year term steering New Hampshire, leads Democratic gubernatorial challenger Dr. Tom Sherman, a state senator, 55%-43%, according to the poll.