- EUR/JPY is offered in the aftermath of the ECB on Thursday.
- The euro is pressured by a lack of certainty with regard to the future path of rate hikes from the ECB.
The euro fell vs. the US Dollar on Thursday after the European Central Bank (ECB) hiked interest rates by a widely expected 50 basis points but failed to give the bulls any more ammunition nor incentive to hold on to the euro as it offered no new hawkish surprises. Expectations are that ECB rates will also be biased lower in Q4 which has also weighed on the euro. At the time of writing, EUR/JPY is trading at 140.33 and down 0.9% on the day after falling from a high of 141.93 to a low of 140.08 so far.
However, in the meantime, there are prospects of more to come from the ECB which should support the euro for the foreseeable future. Analysts at Rabobank explained that the meeting has pretty much confirmed a third 50bp hike in March. ”We expect a 50bp hike in March, followed by two 25bp hikes in Q2 to a terminal rate of 3.50%,” but at the same time noted that ”markets ran away with the few dovish parts of the announcement.”
Looking further out, analysts at Danske Bank argued that the ECB governor Christine Lagarde’s communication during the press conference was reflecting a very split governing council,” where she also said that any decision is the fruit of compromise.”
”In the end” the analysts said further, ”the ECB’s intention to hike 50bp at the March meeting is not a 100% commitment.”
”Unsurprisingly, the ECB confirmed the data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting decision approach. This means that with markets trading on a narrative other than that which the ECB wants to convey on a more holistic plan (e.g. one of underlying inflation lingering, despite lower headline), we saw significantly lower yields to today’s meeting.”
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